• Forecasting power demand in China with a CNN-LSTM model including multimodal information
    編號:241 稿件編號:57 訪問權限:僅限參會人 更新:2022-05-12 15:25:26 瀏覽:420次 口頭報告

    報告開始:2022年05月27日 09:30 (Asia/Shanghai)

    報告時間:20min

    所在會議:[S3] Energy and Sustainable Green Development [S3-2.4] Energy and Sustainable Green Development-2.4

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    摘要
    The power industry is a basic industry in the national economy and a key industry for China to achieve the "dual carbon goals". Accurate forecasting of power demand is the primary basic work for the development of the national power master plan, coal power withdrawal, and renewable energy investment decisions. Therefore, using the modeling idea driven by multi-modal information fusion to construct a new integrated forecasting model of power demand based on CNN-LSTM (Convolution Neural Network, Long Short-term Memory) in a multi-source heterogeneous data environment. Firstly, CNN is used to extract implicit features from power demand numerical time series data and text data (including policy texts, news reports, and forum comments); Secondly, series feature and text feature are organically fused by series fusion method; Finally, the fused features are input into the LSTM model for prediction. The experimental results show that, on the one hand, the proposed multi-modal information fusion prediction model is superior to the widely-used single prediction model (e.g. ARIMA, CNN, and LSSVM) and combined prediction model (e.g. EEMD-ARIMA and EEMD-LSSVM) in terms of level accuracy and directional accuracy; on the other hand, it proves that the organic fusion of time series data and text data can effectively improve forecasting performance. The forecast results show that due to the influence of multiple factors such as China’s economic restructuring and energy system transformation, China’s power demand growth will gradually slow down or even show a downward trend in the next two years. This finding provides an important decision-making reference for the low-carbon transformation of China’s power system.
    關鍵字
    power demand,forecasting,multimodal information fusion,feature fusion,CNN-LSTM
    報告人
    Jun GAN
    China University of Mining and Technology

    稿件作者
    德魯 王 中國礦業大學
    郡 甘 中國礦業大學
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